Protecting Your Overseas Investments with Currency ETFs

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been growing in popularity with investors and their advisers.  They offer low costs and opportunities to more precisely create an asset allocation or take advantage of trading and hedging ideas.

Currency Exchange Traded Funds have grown popular over the course of 2011 to investors who are attempting to gain exposure to foreign currency while avoiding the cost and complexity of the foreign exchange (Forex) market. Investing in foreign stocks and bonds can be a good investment when looking for a financial diversification and also offer the potential of producing substantial returns.

Up until recently, an investor’s only choice to hedge foreign exposure has been through the Forex markets. These markets can be complex for most investors and require substantial capital at risk.  Investing in Forex is promoted by some as a speculative way to make profits.  But an investment in foreign currency comes with the risk of losing money through exchange rates.

ETF’s that focus on currencies are a less complex way to hedge an overseas investment. They give the average investor the opportunity to invest away from the US dollar. ETF’s are also used as ideal instruments for investors to diminish the loss of money due to exchange rates.

Why Invest in Currency Exchange Traded Funds?

Investing in an ETF is much less complex than investing in the Forex market. Although the Forex is the most liquid market (trillions are traded each day), it can be difficult for the average investor to get a seat at the table considering the capital that may be needed and the trading costs incurred. ETF’s offer a simpler way to invest in foreign markets.

If an investor feels as though there is potential economic growth overseas or in an emerging market, ETF’s are a perfect vehicle for international exposure.  Buying individual stocks overseas may be difficult for US investors and may be costly as well.  Mutual funds are a great way to gain access but they have higher costs compared to ETFs.

Why invest in currencies?  Consider this:  Living in the US means that your source of income and most of your investments are denominated in US dollars.  If your portfolio is loaded with domestic investments (and most investors tend to be woefully under-allocated in foreign equity positions), adding a currency ETF to your portfolio can help balance your investments and add diversity to your portfolio away from the US dollar.

Let’s say you are investing overseas through mutual funds in your 401(k) or brokerage account.  Most of these portfolio managers tend to not hedge their exposure to currency changes.  This can turn a positive fund return into a loss when converting back to the US dollar.

Now an investor may want to hedge by holding a position in a foreign currency.  But investing in foreign markets can be risky because of the constant fluctuation of currency and exchange rates. The currency market never closes and is open twenty-four hours of everyday. For the average investor, constantly keeping up with the currencies to figure out the best times to sell and buy may not be worthwhile and result in a loss in money (as well as sleep).   ETF’s offer a more efficient opportunity to manage these risks of foreign investments.

Why bother?  Well, just look at the news headlines.  There continues to be debt crises in foreign and US markets.  This tends to lead to potentially higher interest rates as investors demand a higher return for attracting their money to a particular country.  Higher interest rates in turn will negatively impact the value of the currency and lead to a “weaker” currency. (The upside, on the other hand, is that a weak dollar, for example, will make our exports more competitively priced and help those business dealing overseas).

Investors may be interested in “safe haven” currencies during poor financial times. Countries with strong political stability, low inflation, and stable monetary and fiscal policies tend to be magnets for money in tough times. While that doesn’t necessarily describe the US right now, we are still considered the best option out there as a “safe haven.”

Hedging Examples

According to this article appearing on Investopedia, “a weakening currency can drag down positive returns or exacerbate negative returns in an investment portfolio. For example, Canadian investors who were invested in the S&P 500 from January 2000 to May 2009 had returns of -44.1% in Canadian dollar terms (compared with returns for -26% for the S&P 500 in U.S. dollar terms), because they were holding assets in a depreciating currency (the U.S. dollar, in this case).”

Disadvantages of ETF’s

No investment comes without risks and ETFs and currency ETFs in particular are no different. As is the case with many ETFs, there is always the issue of liquidity of the ETF.  (An ETF without a deep market or volume can produce exaggerated and volatile price changes). And in the case of currency ETFs there is the added issue of dealing with foreign taxes.

The Bottom Line

Whether or not a currency ETF makes sense for your particular situation is something that only you with the help of a qualified professional can determine.

But you should at least be aware of the tools available that may help you protect your portfolio. At the very least, it makes sense to hedge overseas investments especially during volatile times.

Read more: Hedging Currency Risk with ETFs

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Buckle Up and Hold On: Investment Roller-Coaster Ahead

When you’re on an airplane and hit turbulence or rough weather, the flight crew tells you to stay seated and buckled.  Unfortunately, when the markets hit bad weather, there is rarely such a warning.

You might want to call it “Black Thursday.”

Yesterday, the markets around the world went into a tailspin reacting almost violently to the ongoing drumbeat of dour economic news.

On the radar, we’ve seen the storm clouds moving in for a while now:

• lower than expected GDP in the US last quarter,
• downward revisions of the GDP to a negligible 0.4% for the first quarter,
• lower business and consumer confidence surveys,
• sharply lower than expected new jobs created,
• higher unemployment,
• foreign debt crises weighing down our Eurozone trading partners.

There was a temporary distraction over the last couple of weeks as we in the US focused on the debt ceiling debate to the exclusion of all else.  Self-congratulatory press remarks by politicians aside, nothing done in Washington really changed the fact that we are still flying into a stiff head wind and storm clouds that threaten recovery prospects.

Eventually, though, the accumulation of downbeat news over the past few weeks seems to have finally come to a head yesterday.  No one thing seems to have caused it.  It just seems that finally someone said “the Emperor has no clothes” and everyone finally noticed the obvious: global economies are weak and burdened by debt and political crises.

All of this has been creating doubt in the minds of investors about the ability to find and implement policies or actions by governments or private sector companies.  And doubt leads to uncertainty.  And if there’s one thing we know for certain, it is that markets abhor uncertainty.

While many commentators may have thought that the “resolution” of the debt ceiling debate in Washington would have calmed the markets, it seems that upon further review of the details the markets are not so sure.  And in an “abundance of caution” market analysts who once were so OK with exotic bond and mortgage investments are now reacting overly negatively to any and all news and evidence of weakness by governments or companies.

What’s An Investor to Do?

Don’t panic.  It may be cliché but it’s still true.  If you hadn’t already put in place a hedging strategy, then what is past is past and move forward.

So the Dow has erased on its gains for 2011 and has turned the time machine back to December 2008.

If you sell now — especially without a plan in place — you’re setting yourself up for failure.

Here’s a simple plan to consider:

1. Hold On:  You can’t lose anything if you sell.
2. Hedge: As I’ve said before in this blog and in the ViewPoint Newsletter, you need to put in place a hedge.  There are lots of tools available to investors (and advisers) to help:  Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on the S&P 500, for instance, can be hedged with options or you can use “trailing stop-loss” instructions to limit the market downside; another option – inverse ETFs that move opposite the underlying index. These aren’t buy-hold types of ETFs but can be used to provide short-term (daily) hedges.
3. Rebalance:  If you’re not already diversified among different asset classes, then now’s the time to look at that. You may be able to pick up on some great bargains right now that will position you better for the long-term.  Yes, every risky asset got hit in the downdraft but that’s still no reason to be bulked up on one company stock or mutual fund type.
4. Keep Your Powder Dry and in Reserve:  Cash is king – an oft-repeated phrase still holds true now.  Take a page from my retirement planning advice and make sure you have cash to cover your fixed overhead for a good long time.  With cash in place, you won’t be forced to sell out at fire sale prices now or during other rough times. This is part of what I refer to as “Buy and Hold Out.”
5. Seek Professional Help:  Research reported in the Financial Planning Association’s Journal of Financial Planning shows that those with financial advisers and a plan are more satisfied and overall have more wealth.  Avoiding emotional mistakes improves an investor’s bottom line.

As a side note:  The old stockbroker’s manual still says “Sell in May and Go Away.”  Probably for good reason.  Historically, the summer months are filled with languid or down markets and volatile ups and downs.

 

While it’s tempting to give in to the emotional “flight” survival response that you’re feeling right now, don’t give in.  Stand and fight instead.  But fight smart. Have a plan and consider a professional navigator.

If you are seeking a second opinion or need some help in implementing a personal money rescue plan, please consider the help of a qualified professional.

 

Let’s Make A Plan Together:  978-388-0020

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Ask the Adviser: Why Should I Rollover My 401k From My Old Job?

There are many valid reasons to consider a 401k rollover.

Costs

While it may not seem like it, you are paying for your funds to stay with your old employer’s sponsored plan.  You just don’t see it.  Fees for employer plans are not very transparent.  While you may not see an actual bill, your employer is probably paying for the administration of the plan through hidden fees assessed on the balances held in it.

I have seen sponsored plans that had these back-end hidden fees and charged the participant a piece for each contribution.  A little here, a little there all adds up.  And the more it is, the less there is to compound for your retirement.

While there are few things that you can control in life and investing, fees are one of them.

In a rollover IRA, you’ll have more choices of platforms which may offer low loads and costs so you can keep more in your pocket.  So control what you can when you can for successful investing.

Choice and Access

While some employer plans may offer a variety of funds which may be top of the line, you’re still limited to the menu selected by your employer.  More often than not this is influenced by the broker associated with the plan.  And this can be influenced by the restrictions placed on the choices by the broker’s company or administrator because there may be an incentive to fill the menu with one fund family.

I’ve seen plans offered through national payroll companies that required more than 50% of the fund choices to be of one particular fund family.  Not every choice in a management company’s fund line up may be stellar so you’re limiting yourself by staying with the old plan.

When you rollover you’ll have a much larger universe to choose from.  (My company has access to more than 14,000 non-proprietary mutual funds with no loads or loads waived).  You’ll typically even have access to individual stocks, bonds, Unit Investment Trusts, Exchange Traded Funds and bank CDs.

Have you ever considered investing in something besides stocks, bonds or mutual funds? Maybe you might want to invest in real estate or buy judgments or invest in a business by being its lender or providing a friend with start-up capital.

Well, you can’t do that with a typical 401k plan.  But you can with a self-directed IRA.  And such an IRA can’t be done through the Big Box financial firms.  There are specialized bank and non-bank custodians who handle such transactions and work through independent financial planners to help their clients learn more about such options.

Risk Controls & Broader Choice of Investment Strategies

While you may have online access to your company-sponsored plan so you can make trades or switches of your funds periodically, there really are no risk controls that you can use given the limitations of the platform the 401k is using.

Let’s put it this way:  Investors make money when they don’t lose it.  At least that’s my working philosophy.  Having options and systems in place means that you stand a better chance of protecting your retirement nest egg.

It’s always easier to not lose money in the first place than it is to try to make up for lost ground.  Your money has to work harder to get back to breakeven much less get ahead for your retirement goals.

Consider this:  If you think that Treasurys or munis are in their own bond bubbles, what can you do to protect yourself through your 401k?  Probably, not much.  But in your own IRA you’ll be able to build a more all-weather portfolio that includes inflation hedges like convertible bonds, foreign dividend-paying stocks, master limited partnerships or even managed futures.  All come in mutual funds or ETFs which offer the advantages of diversification without the tax and cost structures of direct investment options.

Or maybe you want to minimize the impact of another downdraft in the market.  Using ETFs and trailing stop-loss orders you may help protect your gains.  Not an option in your old 401k.

So when you roll your account over, you’ll also have access to professional help, tools and direct management options tailored to your specific needs that you just can’t get within your old 401k.

Things to Consider: iMonitor Portfolio Program Money Tools DIY Program

For more information, please call Steve Stanganelli, CFP® at the Rollover Helpline at 978-388-0020 or 617-398-7494.

Check out the website and newsletter archive for more on this and similar topics:  www.ClearViewWealthAdvisors.com.

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New Year’s Resolutions: Money Tips for Staying on Track

The other day I was contacted by Evan Lips, a reporter from the Lowell Sun who was doing a timely article on financial planning tips for the new year.

He had spoken to other financial planners and investment representatives and he had a wide range of opinions provided by them.  These included ways to manage credit to savings to kinds of investments to use for a retirement account.

Because everyone is at a different place in his or her life, some of these tips may not really help now. For instance, how you take money out of retirement accounts when retired is a tip that is less important to someone recently graduated looking to pay off student loan debt.

But there is something common that really can help anyone of any age.

Number One Tip for 2011 and Beyond

So my Number One tip for any consumer of any age:  Control What You Can and Leave the Rest.

What do I mean?

Consumers are usually their own worst enemy.  Too distracted by daily affairs, it’s easy to become overly focused on the news of the moment.  And this can lead to an emotional reaction that can otherwise sabotage long-term financial health.

Things You Can Control

1.      Investors have control over certain things: Their emotions (and reactions to the crisis of the day), investment expenses, asset allocation and amounts they save.

2.       Investing is long-term but the financial media is fixed on short-term crises of the moment.  Be mindful of that and try to tune out the noise.

3.       Your mom was right: Live beneath your means and you’ll have extra cash to save; build up your emergency reserves (minimum 3 months of fixed expenses for married couples working; 6 months for couples with one-earner and nearer 12 months for someone with variable income).

4.       Pay yourself first.  Make it automatic. Have a portion of your paycheck directly sent to a high-yielding savings account.

5.       You can lower your investing expenses and improve your diversification by using Exchange Traded Funds.  ETFs are investments that can trade like stocks but represent a broad basket of investments.  (Sort of like an index mutual fund but with even less expense). If you have less than $100,000 to invest and are looking for efficient core holding for global stock diversification, consider something like the OneFund® ETF from US One at www.usone.com (ticker symbol: ONEF) which is composed of 5 other ETFs from Vanguard and costs less than 0.35% per year while providing 95% exposure to 5,000 large, small and medium-sized companies throughout the world.

6.       Develop good money habits: Reconsider that fancy coffee or fast-food lunch and pocket the savings for a more meaningful goal (i.e. vacation, paying off debt, down payment for a house).

7.       Pay off your debt by snowballing payments.  This technique will help you see progress toward paying off debts.  Start with the ones with the lowest balances and pay above the minimum.  Then when this debt is paid in full apply the amount you were paying toward the next debt.  Eventually, like a snowball rolling down hill, you’ll be applying all these payments in large lumps toward the highest balance debt.  And this will help accelerate paying the debts off and lower your interest expenses.  Then when everything is paid off you can direct this toward your emergency reserves or investing goals.

8.       Position yourself to qualify for more student financial aid: Skip the allowance and put your kid to work.  See my post on this here.

Want Some Low-Cost Globally Efficient Ways to Invest?

What is an ETF?  Go to https://moneylinkpro.wordpress.com/?s=exchange+traded+fund or http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp

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Deflation? Inflation? Lessons from The Three Little Pigs

Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the investing waters, talk of deflation has creeped back into conversation.

Why does it matter? Well, how you position your portfolio to deal with these two scenarios will make a big difference to your personal bottom line.

With inflation, your money is worth less the longer you hold onto it. So you’re more likely to spend in the now because prices may be moving up.

With deflation, your money may buy more later the longer you hold onto it as prices continue to drop. (Not good for a seller but a better deal for a buyer – just ask someone trying to sell a house in Florida these days).

Since consumers respond differently to these two opposing forces, the ultimate direction of them can have a decidedly different impact on how the recovery progresses because of the way consumers react and business respond to their actions. Ultimately, this will impact how to position an investment portfolio accordingly.

The Right Hook
During a fight a boxer may expect to be hit from both the right and left. It’s just not known when and with how much force. But a good boxer, like a Boy Scout, knows to be prepared.

First the economy has been peppered with jabs from the right that could result in higher inflation: expanding money supply, ballooning government deficits, higher commodity prices, weak currency value.

Given the huge inherited, current and projected government deficits here and abroad, the conventional thought has been that all of this government stimulus will ultimately result in “crowding out” private investment and raise the ugly head of higher inflation down the road. The prospect of higher taxes to pay for these past deficits also lends support to these thoughts.

Recent run-ups in certain commodity prices like oil and energy products have resulted in a rise in consumer prices in January bolstering fears of inflation.

The Left Hook

Now comes the left hook – the deflationary threat: asset prices continuing to fall, increasing slack in industrial capacity, and continuing pressure keeping a lid on labor expenses because of high unemployment.

Credit is still tight with bank lending down. While dollars have been pumped into the economy through the TARP program, it’s mostly sitting in bank vaults. Money that isn’t circulating isn’t a cause of inflation.

Recent economic reports have indicated that core consumer prices actually are flat, well below the 10-year average of 2.2%.

Despite some recent reports, housing prices and rents are down and still expected to fall in key markets, dampening the immediate threat of inflation.

Defensive Portfolios: Lessons from Spencer

The best and strongest home depends on your environment and the threats faced.

Each evening before putting our infant son, Spencer, to bed, we read a story. The favorite for now is

The Three Little Pigs

(undoubtedly because of Spencer’s dad’s animation).

We all know the story: Three pigs, three houses built from different materials, one pig survives because of his well-built brick house.

The same can be said for portfolios. Heck, a house of sticks can provide some shelter in some circumstances but what happens if a big bad wolf shows up?

Since we don’t know which type of bad wolf will be showing up at the door (inflation or deflation), it makes sense to be positioned to survive either threat.

The elements of a portfolio will likely be the same regardless of an investor’s mind-set. The differences will be in the proportion of the components used.

Inflation Protection Portfolio
To protect this type of portfolio consider elements more likely to retain value even as inflation increases. Example: Commodity funds or ETFs; inflation-linked fixed income funds that include TIPS and/or floating rate notes; Real Estate Investment Trusts or REIT funds (10%); Cash to take advantage of higher short-term interest rates.

Deflation Protection Portfolio
The majority of this type of portfolio is positioned in long-term Treasurys followed by cash and municipal bonds. As consumer prices and interest rates fall, the fixed income stream from the bonds would be worth more.

To protect against surprise inflation, a smaller proportion would be set aside into TIPS, commodities and higher-quality/large cap US stocks.

Little Pig, Little Pig, Let Me In
Not sure where the market will go? Not sure which threat to expect? Learn from the third little pig: Build the strongest house possible.

If there is inflation, the economy will be expanding. As such equities will be the place to be. So consider an allocation of 20% to 25% in the US and a like amount in foreign equities. A portion of these equities should include high-quality firms that are dividend-paying. Commodities and cash will likely benefit from inflation so a 10% allocation to each is prudent. The fixed income component can include some exposure to TIPS (5%) as well as intermediate high-quality bonds (20% – 30%).

To hedge against the risk of deflation, a portfolio with exposure to municipal bonds (5%) and long-term Treasurys (5% – 10%). And some of the equity portfolio should include exposure to consumer staples that tend to do well in such an environment.

To provide some added diversification consider adding positions in companies that focus on infrastructure and firms that can maintain pricing power like utilities, pipeline operators and the like.

Taking these steps should allow an investor to sleep better at night. At least it works for Spencer.

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Top 8 Reasons to Use ETFs in Your Portfolio

While the market for open-end mutual funds is huge, the market for ETFs is large and poised for growth.  As of 2006 there was approximately $600 billion invested and Morgan Stanley predicts that more than$2 trillion will be invested through ETFs by 2011.

Why are these investment vehicles becoming so popular? How can an individual investor use these to implement a cost-efficient diversified investment portfolio?

 

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) were first introduced to institutional investors in 1993.  Since then they have become increasingly acceptable to advisors and investors alike because of their ability to allow greater control over the portfolio construction and diversification process at a lower cost. You should consider making them a core building block to the foundation of your personal investment portfolio.

1. Better Diversification: Most individuals do not have the time or skill to follow every stock or asset class.  Inevitably, this means that an individual will gravitate to the area he or she is most comfortable in which may result in investing in a limited number of stocks or bonds in the same business or industry sector.  Think of the telecom engineer working at Lucent who bought stocks like AT&T, Global Crossing or Worldcom. Using an ETF to buy a core position in the market as a whole or in a specific sector provides instant diversification which reduces portfolio risk.

2. Improved Performance: Research and experience has shown that most actively managed mutual funds typically underperform their benchmark index.  With fewer tools, limited access to institutional research and lack of a disciplined buy/sell strategy, most individual investors fare even worse.  Without having to worry about picking individual winners or losers in a sector, an investor can invest in a basket of broad-based ETFs for core holdings and may be able to improve the overall performance of a portfolio.  For example, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR was down 15% through October 23, 2008 while the S&P 500 was down more than 38%.

3. More Transparency: More than 60% of Americans invest through mutual funds.  Yet most investors don’t really know what they own. Except for a quarterly report showing the holdings as of the close of business on the last day of the quarter, mutual fund investors do not really know what is in their portfolio.  An ETF is completely transparent. An investor knows exactly what it is comprised of throughout the trading day.  And pricing for an ETF is available throughout the day compared to a mutual fund which trades at the closing price of the business day before.

4. No Style Drift: While mutual funds claim to have a certain tilt such as Large Cap or Small Cap stocks or Growth versus Value, it is common for a portfolio manager to drift away from the core strategy noted in a prospectus in an effort to boost returns.  An active fund manager may add other stocks or bonds that may add to return or lower risk but are not in the sector, market cap or style of the core portfolio.  Inevitably, this may result in an investor holding multiple mutual funds with overlap exposure to a specific company or sector.    

5. Easier Rebalancing: The financial media frequently extols the virtues of rebalancing a portfolio.   Yet, this is sometimes easier said than done. Because most mutual funds contain a combination of cash and securities and may include a mix of large cap, small cap or even value and growth type stocks, it is difficult to get an accurate breakdown of the mix to properly rebalance to the targeted asset allocation.   Since each ETF typically represents an index of a specific asset class, industry sector or market capitalization, it is much easier to implement an asset allocation strategy.  Let’s say you wanted a 50/50 portfolio between cash and the total US stock market index.  If the value of the S&P 500 (represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ‘SPY’) fell by 10%, you could move 10% from cash to get back to the target allocation.

6. More Tax Efficient: Unlike a mutual fund which has embedded capital gains created by previous trading activity, an ETF has no such gains forcing an investor to recognize income.  When an ETF is purchased, it establishes the cost basis for the investment on that particular trade for the investor.  And given the fact that most ETFs follow a low-turnover, buy-and-hold approach, many ETFs will be highly tax efficient with individual shareholders realizing a gain or loss only when they actually sell their own ETFs.

7. Lower Transaction Costs: Operating an ETF is much cheaper than a mutual fund.  In a mutual fund, there are shareholder service expenses which are not needed for an ETF.  In addition, ETFs eliminate the need for research and portfolio management because most ETFs follow a passive index approach.  The ETF mirrors the benchmark index and there is no need for the added expense of portfolio analysts.  This is why the average ETF has internal expenses ranging from 0.18% to 0.58% while the average actively managed mutual fund incurs about 1.5% in annual expenses plus trading costs. 

To compare the total cost of owning an ETF with any mutual fund, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) makes available a Fund & ETF Analyzer tool on its website.  The calculator automatically provides fee and expense data for all fund share classes and ETFs.  The calculator can be found at:  http://apps.finra.org/fundanalyzer/1/fa.aspx .

8. Trading Flexibility and Implementing Sophisticated Investment Strategies:

ETFs trade like other stocks and bonds.  So this means that an investor has the flexibility to use them to employ a range of risk management and trading strategies including hedging techniques like “stop losses” and “shorting,” options not available by “long-only” mutual funds.

Another advantage is the ability to use “inverse ETFs” which may provide some protection against a drop in value of the market or sector.  (An inverse ETF responds opposite the return of the underlying benchmark.  So if one wants to minimize the impact of a decline in the S&P 500 index, for example, then one can invest a portion of the portfolio in an “inverse” which will go up when the index value goes down.)

Or an investor can tilt their portfolio to “overweight” a particular industry or sector by buying more of an ETF index for that area.  By buying an index, an investor can be positioned to take advantage of the expected changes in this industry or area without the inherent risks involved with an individual stock.

Some investors become wedded to their individual stocks or mutual funds and do not want to sell and incur a loss and miss out on the opportunity for an expected rebound. Another tax-efficient option for an investor to consider is to sell the security that is at a loss while buying the ETF representing the industry or sector of the sold security.  This way the investor can book the loss, take the tax deduction for it and still be positioned in the area but with a more broadly diversified index.

Investors, academics and financial advisors sometimes question the strategy of “buy and hold.”  Some investors seek a more active management tactical approach which can be done with ETFs.  Even though ETFs represent passively-created indexes, an investor can actively trade them.  There are a variety of trading strategies available to “manage the trends.”  When an index moves above or below its 50-day moving average or 200-day moving average, this may be a signal to trade in or out of the ETF.  To minimize the trading costs that would be incurred by trading an ETF, an investor can use an ETF wrap program that covers all trading costs.  Typically, such arrangements are still less costly than buying or selling multiple individual stocks in a separately managed account or using an actively managed mutual fund.

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