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Posts Tagged ‘Rebalance Your Investments’

When you’re on an airplane and hit turbulence or rough weather, the flight crew tells you to stay seated and buckled.  Unfortunately, when the markets hit bad weather, there is rarely such a warning.

You might want to call it “Black Thursday.”

Yesterday, the markets around the world went into a tailspin reacting almost violently to the ongoing drumbeat of dour economic news.

On the radar, we’ve seen the storm clouds moving in for a while now:

  • lower than expected GDP in the US last quarter,
  • downward revisions of the GDP to a negligible 0.4% for the first quarter,
  • lower business and consumer confidence surveys,
  • sharply lower than expected new jobs created,
  • higher unemployment,
  • foreign debt crises weighing down our Eurozone trading partners.

There was a temporary distraction over the last couple of weeks as we in the US focused on the debt ceiling debate to the exclusion of all else.  Self-congratulatory press remarks by politicians aside, nothing done in Washington really changed the fact that we are still flying into a stiff head wind and storm clouds that threaten recovery prospects.

Eventually, though, the accumulation of downbeat news over the past few weeks seems to have finally come to a head yesterday.  No one thing seems to have caused it.  It just seems that finally someone said “the Emperor has no clothes” and everyone finally noticed the obvious: global economies are weak and burdened by debt and political crises.

All of this has been creating doubt in the minds of investors about the ability to find and implement policies or actions by governments or private sector companies.  And doubt leads to uncertainty.  And if there’s one thing we know for certain, it is that markets abhor uncertainty.

While many commentators may have thought that the “resolution” of the debt ceiling debate in Washington would have calmed the markets, it seems that upon further review of the details the markets are not so sure.  And in an “abundance of caution” market analysts who once were so OK with exotic bond and mortgage investments are now reacting overly negatively to any and all news and evidence of weakness by governments or companies.

What’s An Investor to Do?

Don’t panic.  It may be cliché but it’s still true.  If you hadn’t already put in place a hedging strategy, then what is past is past and move forward.

So the Dow has erased on its gains for 2011 and has turned the time machine back to December 2008.

If you sell now — especially without a plan in place — you’re setting yourself up for failure.

Here’s a simple plan to consider:

  1. Hold On:  You can’t lose anything if you sell.
  2. Hedge: As I’ve said before in this blog and in the ViewPoint Newsletter, you need to put in place a hedge.  There are lots of tools available to investors (and advisers) to help:  Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on the S&P 500, for instance, can be hedged with options or you can use “trailing stop-loss” instructions to limit the market downside; another option – inverse ETFs that move opposite the underlying index. These aren’t buy-hold types of ETFs but can be used to provide short-term (daily) hedges.
  3. Rebalance:  If you’re not already diversified among different asset classes, then now’s the time to look at that. You may be able to pick up on some great bargains right now that will position you better for the long-term.  Yes, every risky asset got hit in the downdraft but that’s still no reason to be bulked up on one company stock or mutual fund type.
  4. Keep Your Powder Dry and in Reserve:  Cash is king – an oft-repeated phrase still holds true now.  Take a page from my retirement planning advice and make sure you have cash to cover your fixed overhead for a good long time.  With cash in place, you won’t be forced to sell out at fire sale prices now or during other rough times. This is part of what I refer to as “Buy and Hold Out.”
  5. Seek Professional Help:  Research reported in the Financial Planning Association’s Journal of Financial Planning shows that those with financial advisers and a plan are more satisfied and overall have more wealth.  Avoiding emotional mistakes improves an investor’s bottom line.

As a side note:  The old stockbroker’s manual still says “Sell in May and Go Away.”  Probably for good reason.  Historically, the summer months are filled with languid or down markets and volatile ups and downs.

 

While it’s tempting to give in to the emotional “flight” survival response that you’re feeling right now, don’t give in.  Stand and fight instead.  But fight smart. Have a plan and consider a professional navigator.

If you are seeking a second opinion or need some help in implementing a personal money rescue plan, please consider the help of a qualified professional.

 

Let’s Make A Plan Together:  978-388-0020

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The holiday season is almost upon us.  Before we all get caught up in the spirit of the season (or mayhem, depending on your perspective), consider taking time to get your fiscal house in order with these tips.

The Year of the RMD

Last year, required minimum distributions (RMDs) were not required as Congress granted a reprieve to not force clients to take distributions from severely depressed retirement accounts.

That free pass is not available this year.  So if you or someone you know is over age 70 1/2, you have to take a distribution from your IRAs.  This also applies to those who are beneficiaries of inherited IRA accounts as well.

Distributions don’t have to be taken from each IRA account but a calculation must be made based on the value of all accounts at the end of last year.  Then a withdrawal can be made from one or more accounts as long as it at least equals the minimum amount.

Think Ahead for Higher Taxes

In all likelihood, taxes will be higher next year.  As things stand, the Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire and marginal income tax rates and estate taxes will increase.

So look to booking capital gains this year if possible since tax rates on both long-term and short-term gains are certainly lower this year.

Reduce Concentration

There’s obviously enough going on to distract any investor but what I’m talking about here is concentrated stock positions.  Many clients may take advantage of company-sponsored stock purchase plans or have inherited positions concentrated in just a few stock positions.

Regardless of one’s age, this is risky.  This is especially risky to concentrate your income and your investments with your employer.  Remember Enron?  How about WorldCom?  Or maybe Alcatel-Lucent?

So given the lower capital gains tax rates that exist definitely now (versus a proposed but illusory extension later), it makes sense to reduce the highly concentrated positions in one or more stocks.

I know a widow who inherited the stock positions that her husband bought.  These included AT&T and Apple.  While AT&T was once a great “widow and orphans” stock paying out a reliable dividend because of the cash flow generated from its near monopoly status in telephone services, it broke up into so many Baby Bells.  The dividends from these have not matched the parent company and the risks of these holdings have increased as the telecom sector  has become more volatile.

And while Apple has been a soaring success for her (bought very low), it represents over one-third of her investment holdings.

Like most people I come across, she has emotional ties to these holdings.  And while she and others like her would not think of going into a casino to put all their chips on one or two numbers at the roulette wheel, they don’t find it inconsistent to have a lot of their eggs in just one or two investment baskets.

Since she relies on these investments to supplement her income, she needs to think about how to protect herself.  Although people may recognize this need, it doesn’t make it any easier to get people to do what is in their best interests when their emotions get in the way.

‘Tis the Season for Giving

Right now the highest marginal income tax bracket is 35% which is set to rise to 39.6%.  And capital gains tax rates are set to rise as well.  And come January 1, the capital deduction on gifts will be reduced from 35% to 28%.  All of this makes giving substantial gifts to charities a little more costly for your wallet.  So if you’re planning to make a large charitable donation, it pays to speed it up into this year.

To Roth or Not to Roth – Year of the Conversion?

This year provides high-earners an opportunity to convert all or part of their tax-deferred accounts to Roth IRAs which offers an opportunity to pay no income tax on withdrawals in the future.

The decision to take advantage of this opportunity needs to be weighed against the availability and source of cash to pay taxes now on previously deferred gains in the tax-deferred IRAs or 401ks. It also must consider the assumptions about future income tax rates and even whether or not future Roth IRA withdrawal rules might be changed by Congress.

Create an Investment Road Map

To really help gain clear direction on your investing, you really should consider sitting down with an adviser who will help you draft your personal investment road map (an Investment Policy Statement) that outlines how investment purchase and sale decisions will be made, what criteria will be used to evaluate proposed investments and how you will gauge and track results toward your personal benchmark.

This exercise helps establish a clear process that minimizes the impact of potentially destructive emotional reactions that can lead you astray.

Rebalance and Diversify

Just as you might plan on changing the batteries in your smoke detectors when you reset the clocks in the spring and fall, you should rebalance your investments periodically as well.

Now is as good a time as any to reassess your risk tolerance.  Research has shown that an investor’s risk tolerance is dynamic and influenced by general feelings about yourself, your situation and the world around you.  With the world’s stock markets showing many positive gains, this may lead some to become more willing to take risks.  This may not be a good thing in the long run so really question your assumptions about investing.

Armed with your investment road map and a risk profile, you will be in a better position to determine the mix of investments for diversification.  Don’t be afraid of adding to the mix investment asset classes that may not be familiar.  The idea of diversification is assembling investment assets that complement each other while potentially reducing risk.  And just as the economy has changed and the types of industries that are dominant rise and fall, it’s fair to say that what is “in” now may be “out” later making it important to reconsider your mix.

For this reason, this is why looking abroad to developed and emerging markets still makes sense.  Many of these economies are not bogged down by the after-effects of the great financial meltdown. And the rise of their consumerist middle classes means the potential to take advantage of demographics favoring growth sectors like natural resources, telecom, agriculture and technology.

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“Sometimes all it takes to change your life massively for the better is a small action and a small success, “ says David Bach, a noted author on money matters. 

  1. Consolidate Your Accounts:  Don’t wait for spring cleaning to roll around.  Make it easier on yourself by combining old 401(k) or IRA balances from your various old jobs.  This can help cut down on the amount of paper you receive and improve the chances you’ll have a coordinated investment plan. And it’s just one more way to have a more ‘green’ holiday.
  2. Pay Yourself First: While there always seems like there’s more month at the end of your paycheck, you can only get ahead by making a point of putting aside money in savings.  It doesn’t matter if it’s just $5 or 5% of each paycheck as long as it’s consistent.  Start somewhere and try to build up to your target of at least 5% of your net cash flow. Direct the money into a separate money market account that you can’t access easily from an ATM or debit card.
  3. Get to Know Where Your Money Goes:  For most people cash flow is not the problem. It’s cash retention that is a challenge. There always seems to be too much flow away from you.  Set up a system to keep track of where your money is spent.  Whether you decide to use a notebook or financial accounting software like Quicken or an online service like Mint.com, this is a first step to getting the information you need to decide what your spending priorities should be. 
  4. Cut Expenses:  Armed with the information from your tracking, now consider ways to lower expenses.  Do you really need a daily Mucho Grande from your favorite coffee place?  At $5 a day, your habit could help pay for your annual vacation or pay down your credit card or mortgage debt. Do you really use all those movie channels?  Can you wear a sweater and lower the thermostat?  Do you really need to be in the mall? Cut down on impulse shopping by creating and sticking to a master list of groceries and household goods.
  5. Reduce Temptation: Consider saving the bulk of any bonus checks or raises.  By automatically diverting this money, you’ll be able to add to your emergency stash, have cash to pay down debt or even invest. See #2 above.
  6. Reevaluate Your Risk Tolerance:  One of the most useful services that financial planners can offer is helping you really articulate your goals and establish your tolerance for investing risk.  After the bumpy ride of the past 18 months, most folks realize that they may not have had a handle on this.
  7. Avoid the Casino Mentality: It is an understatement that investing in the market can be risky but now is not the time to try to play catch up by “doubling down” or chasing the hottest investments ideas.  Remember the story of the tortoise and hare.  Sometimes the race doesn’t go to the swiftest but the most consistent.  So diversify your eggs into different baskets and watch those baskets.  For help in choosing the right mix of investments and a style that will help you sleep better at night, consider meeting with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ professional.
  8. Rebalance Your Investments:  Over time, accounts that have been consistently rebalanced tend to have higher balances.  So plan to rebalance at least annually or even quarterly.  But first you need to have targets in mind so that you can unemotionally prune back your winners while adding to the laggards.
  9. Add to Your Retirement:  If you haven’t taken advantage of your employer’s sponsored retirement plan, start now.  If your employer doesn’t offer a plan or you’re self-employed, start your own.  Resolve to set aside at least the amount that will get you the maximum company match.   Ideally, you should know your “NUMBER” for living in retirement the way you want.  Consulting with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ professional can help you here.
  10. Get Planning Advice to Map Your Route to Your Goals:  Maybe you’ve winged it and thought your home and 401(k) were your tickets to a secure retirement.  Odds are that your planning is not filling the bill.  Sit down with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ professional to discuss your whole picture and map out the action steps that will help keep you on track for financial success.

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