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Posts Tagged ‘Risk Tolerance’

 

“The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket.” Kin Hubbard

Investing takes time.  As humans our brains are more wired toward the flight-or-flight survival responses that got us to the top of the food chain.  So we are more prone to panic moves in one direction or another and this is not always in our best long-term interests.

So to retire richer requires a little work on understanding who we are and what we can do to improve our sustainable retirement odds.

There are lots of things in life that we cannot control.  And humans in general are easily driven to distraction. We are busy texting, emailing, surfing the web, and all other manner of techno-gadget interruptions from phone, computer and office equipment around us.

It’s no wonder that folks find it difficult to focus on long-term planning.  We hear a snippet of news on the radio or watch a talking head wildly flailing his arms about one stock or another and think that this is the ticket to investing success.

For those who remember physics class and one of Newton’s great discoveries, you can just as easily apply the rules of the physical world to human financial behavior:  A body at rest will tend to stay at rest; a body in motion will tend to stay in motion.

For most investors, inertia is the dominant theme that controls financial action or inaction.  Confronted with conflicting or incomplete information, most people will tend to procrastinate about making a commitment to one plan or another, one action or another.  Even once a course of action is adopted, we’re more likely than not to leave things on auto-pilot because of a lack of time or fear of making a wrong move.

To get us to move on anything, there has to be a lot of effort.  But once a tipping point is reached, people move but not always in the direction that may be in their best interests. Is it any wonder that most people end up being tossed between the two greatest motivators of action – and investing:  Greed and Fear.

So while someone cannot control the weather (unless you remember the old story line from the daytime soap General Hospital in the 1980s), the direction of a stock index or the value of a specific stock, we can all control our emotions.

Easier said than done?  You bet.  That’s why you need to approach investing for retirement or any financial goal with a process that helps take the emotional element out of it.  And you need to develop good habits about saving, debt and investment decisions.

What Does Rich Mean To You?

So you say you want to retire rich?  Sure, we all want to.  But what does “rich” look like to you.  There are surveys of folks who have $500,000 or $1million in investable assets describing themselves as middle class.  There are those I know who live quite comfortably on under $30,000 a year and would never describe themselves as poor.

Be Specific

First you should get a good picture of where you expect to be and what kind of life you envision.  Be clear about it.  Visualize it and then go find a picture you can hang up in a prominent place to remind you of your goal every day.  (That’s why I have pictures of my family on this blog reminding me of why I do everything I do).

Appeal to Your Competitive Streak

We are better motivated when we have tangible targets for either goals or competitors.  Ever ride a bike or run on the road and use the guy jogging in front of you as a target?  Same thing here.

So assuming you know what your retirement will look like, you’ll be able to put a number to it.  Now find out how you’re doing with a personal benchmark.  One way is to go to www.INGcompareme.com, a public website run by the financial giant ING which allows you to compare your financial status with others of similar age, income and assets.  Or try the calculators found at the bottom of the home page for www.ClearViewWealthAdvisors.com. This might help give you the motivation you need to save more if needed.

Use Checklists

They can save your life.  And even the lives of your passengers.  Just ask Captain Sully who credits his crew with good training and following a process that minimized the distractions from a highly emotional scene above the Hudson River.

The daily grind can be distracting.  Often we may be unable to see the big forest because of the trees standing in our path to retirement.

So try these tips:

Mid-thirties to early 40s:

  • Target a savings goal of 1.5 times your annual salary
    • Enroll in a company savings plan
    • Take full advantage of any 401k match that’s offered
    • Automatically increase your contributions by 5% to 10% each year (example: You set aside 4% this year; then next year set aside at least 4.5%)
    • If you max out what you can put aside in the company plan, consider adding a Roth IRA
    • Get your emergency reserves in place in readily available, FDIC-insured bank accounts, CDs or money markets
    • Invest for growth: Consider an allocation to equities equal to 128 minus your current age
    • Let your money travel: More growth is occurring in other parts of the world so don’t be stingy with your foreign stock or bond allocations.  Americans are woefully under-represented in overseas investing so try to look at a target of at least 20% up to 40% depending on your risk profile

Mid-Career (mid-forties to mid fifties)

  • Target a savings goal of 3 times your annual salary
    • Rebalance your portfolio periodically (consider at the very least doing so when you change your clocks)
    • Make any “catch-up” contributions by stashing away the maximum allowed for those over age 50
    • Consolidate your accounts from old IRAs, 401ks and savings to cut down on your investment costs and improve the coordination of your plan and allocation target

Nearing and In Retirement (Age 56 and beyond)

  • Target savings of six times your annual salary
    • Prune your stock holdings (about 40% of 401k investors had more than 80% in stocks according to Fidelity Investments)
    • Shift investments for income:  foreign and domestic hi-yield dividend paying stocks, some hi-yield bonds, some convertible bonds
    • Map out your retirement income plan – to sustain retirement cash flow you need to have a retirement income plan in place
    • Regularly review and rework the retirement income plan that incorporates any pensions, Social Security benefits and no more than 4% – 4.5% withdrawals from the investment portfolio stash accumulated
    • Have a Plan B ready:  Know your other options to supplement income from part-time work or consulting or tapping home equity through a reverse mortgage or receiving pensions available to qualifying Veterans.

Don’t be afraid to get a second opinion or help in crafting your plans form a qualified retirement professional.  You can find a CFP(R) professional by checking out the consumer portion of the Financial Planning Association website or by calling 617-398-7494 to arrange for a complimentary review with your personal money coach, Steve Stanganelli, CFP(R).

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Investing Mistake #1: Treating Investments Like a Part-Time Job and Not a Business.

“When a man tells you that he got rich through hard work, ask him: Whose?” Don Marquis

While you may be investing for a child’s education, a vacation home or retirement, the common ingredient for success really is the process, approach and mindset you bring to making investing a success.  Take it seriously and you get serious results.  If you are fearful, your results will reflect it.  If you are a daredevil, your results may reflect that, too.

All your personal goals are important, aren’t they? You’ve worked hard for your money, didn’t you?  So why not find a better way to make your money work smart for you?

Why Mindset Can Really Harm You

Too often, investors simply think that what and how they save won’t really matter.  They don’t have enough money to make it worth it and they don’t have the time to really focus on the whole investing game. I know, life gets in the way when you’re doing other things and making other plans.

Thinking of this made me remember visiting an underground cave with my friends John and Lisa on a trip through the Blue Mountains. We entered the caves on a tour and saw all these fantastic, awe-inspiring formations created by the centuries of slow drips of water and mineral from the cave ceilings.  The stalactites and stalagmites formed bridges and statues of animals and even formations reminiscent of the craftsmanship used to build the cathedrals of Medieval Europe.  Small, incremental and consistent efforts produced such grand results.  If it can happen in nature, why not for something like a college savings account?

Too often, investors simply throw up their hands and take the easy road.  They do nothing, make no changes and for fear of making a mistake or because they don’t know who to trust, they avoid working with a professional.

They may hear the media report that a monkey throwing darts at a list of mutual funds or stocks may have beaten a professional money manager. Another favorite topic in the financial press is how most money managers do not bear their index.  But on the other hand, other stories will focus on the fantastic results of quick trigger investment schemes of the day-trader variety.

Let’s face it:  How well your investments perform from day to day will not likely make a big difference in your lifestyle now.  But how well you plan and invest may determine if, how and when you can retire, build a legacy to pass on and do all the things that are on your personal “bucket list.”

Two Categories of Investors

So investors will fall into two categories:  Those who focus exclusively on performance and those who focus on process.

Most investors, despite repeated warnings in small print at the end of the ads,  will focus on past performance as reported by the popular press and websites.  So despite the daily constraints on time because of family and work, these same folks will pick up an occasional financial newspaper or magazine or troll some financial websites and pick up a few ideas. They’ll see a Top 10 list of investments from last quarter or last year and then buy them because they performed well over some arbitrary time frame.

The Part-Time Investor in Action

Those who are more well-to-do or successful or affluent are either too busy making money to focus their time on investing or they believe that they have the skills to handle things on their own because they are successful in their careers.

I’m reminded of a woman I met on several occasions to discuss a way to bring some order to her investments.  She was a single mom raising a teen and worked in a fast-paced, deadline sensitive business.  Whenever we spoke, we were regularly interrupted by ringing phones and a buzzing pager.  Although she barely had time for lunch, much less research basic investment concepts, she ultimately decided that she would go it alone and master an online trading strategy to buy and sell stocks and options.

If you’re a successful surgeon or restaurateur or engineer or banker, do you really think that the same skill set that got you to the top of your profession, will also mean you can invest the time needed to properly manage and protect your wealth – not just your investments, but the whole set of tax, asset protection, retirement strategy planning, credit and cash management concepts?

Highly successful people may have achieved enviable incomes but can tend to be haphazard or casual about investing and integrating a financial plan.  Often, they may think that their incomes are secure, their career path certain, and they have skill and time to handle things on their own.

In reality, most may not really know what it takes to get to their goal.  For a 49-year old executive with a good $400,000 annual income and a $1 million investment portfolio trying to target for a retirement lifestyle at age 65 without much down scaling, he has to grow his nest egg to $6 million within a mere decade and a half.

And there is the equally disturbing statistic that the Great Recession has been hard on white collar professionals.  Those with college and advanced degrees make up more than 20% of the unemployed and long-term unemployed.

Be the CEO of Your Own Investment Company

Investing at any level and especially at this level requires a business mindset. The same sort of principles that apply to business success apply to your own investing. And just like any other CEO, you need to make sure that your assets are managed in a systematic, disciplined and prudent manner.

  • Business Plan: You need a business plan for your investments that covers the short and long term.  This means having a clear road map for your goals with appropriate benchmarks tied to achieving them. Instead of using the arbitrary indexes quoted by the media, you need to have a personal benchmark so you’re more likely to stay on target.
  • SMART GOALS: You need clear goals: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-Specific
  • Commit to a Realistic Strategy: You need a clear strategy for meeting those goals – a 20% annual return might sound nice but is it realistic given historical norms and your own experience and peace of mind
  • Don’t take it personally: As in business, don’t take the ups and downs in the market personally and don’t be afraid to review
  • Surround yourself with a professional team: If you’re serious about investing for success, then take the time to assemble a proper team of professionals who can help and who you can trust.  No business succeeds long term without a good team.

Don’t be too focused on your career to ignore this.  You can’t afford to treat your family’s future security as a part-time job or hobby.

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It is said that when the British surrendered to the Colonial Army at Yorktown the band played a tune titled “The World Turned Upside Down.”  True or not, it is a fitting sound track to a seemingly improbable situation: The defeat of a well-trained army and navy of the most powerful empire in the world by an under-funded, out-numbered and ill-equipped army of colonials. It was as if the Sun, Earth and stars had become unhitched leaving navigators without their usual bearings.

In much the same way, the Great Recession has shattered our views on what is ‘safe’ and what it means to be ‘conservative’ or ‘aggressive.’  Looking to preserve capital and produce income?  Invest in government bonds and maybe real estate.  Young and looking to score big on the potential upside of stocks? Go for small company stocks or overseas because if there’s a bust you’ll have time to recover. At least that was the conventional thinking. Everything that was traditionally considered to be ‘safe’ and dull turned out to be dangerous and ‘risky.’

There’s nothing scarier than conventional thinking in a changing market.  And what has evolved after the near melt down of the US financial system – indeed the global financial system – in the Fall of 2008 is certainly a changed market.

Household names including the bluest of the Blue Chips have entered and come out of bankruptcy.  The foundation for wealth for most people – real estate – has crumbled and is a long way from recovery to previous levels. Government debt of developed countries considered at one time to be nearly risk-less have been to the precipice as Greece neared default and threatened the entire Euro zone. Now, it’s not even beyond the pale to consider a future downgrade of the credit rating of the US Government.

Having an understanding of risk is important not just for investors but for the advisers trying to guide them.  In the past, an adviser (or your company’s 401k web site) would have you fill out a questionnaire.  Those eight to 12 questions would identify the type of investor you were and lead to an asset allocation reasonably appropriate for an investor’s Risk Profile, Time Horizon and Goals. This was sometimes considered a “set and forget” type of thing.

But commonsense and our experience tell us that things change.  Take the weather:  Some days it’s sunny and other times it’s rainy or cold.  What you wear on one day or even part of a day may not be right when the weather changes.  That’s just like investing.  A risk profile and asset allocation determined at one point might not be right for another.

So risk profiles are not static things either.  Invariably, they change based on how we feel. Hey, we’re only human. You need to reconsider your risk appetite regularly and now is a good time.  And it should be more than a few multiple choice questions.

After the run-ups in the markets in the late 90’s, people would tend to see things going up perpetually and say they would be more comfortable with risk.  On the other hand, after the two major meltdowns this past decade, the pendulum has swung the other way. Too far, in fact.

Faced with our own emotions and the vagaries of a global economic system, one might consider it to be less risky to sit on the sidelines.  Or maybe it’s safe to put all your chips on what you know – like your company stock.  Or just cash it all out and leave it parked in a money market or bank.

At first glance these strategies may be considered low risk but in reality – even the reality of today’s changed world – they are not.  Your company stock?  Consider Enron or Lucent and ask their employees how their retirement accounts held up.  Cash?  At the minuscule rates banks are offering, you’re already behind the eight ball with taxes and inflation.

There’s more to risk than the volatile nature of an asset’s price. And what should matter most is not which assets are owned but how well they perform on the upside and downside.

If you’re hungry, your goal is to not be hungry.  You say you like to eat steak and always eat steak.  Well, that’s great but the risk of heart disease may catch up to you.  So what you ate before may not be right for you now. Maybe it’s time to substitute more fish and add more vegetables.

That’s the essence of remodeling your portfolio now.  Government bonds still have a place in your portfolio – just like that steak – but it’s time to scale back on the developed nations of Europe with their risks of default and the US where another bubble is brewing and add those from emerging markets. If you own gold or want to buy it because it’s a “safe haven” for inflationary times and you don’t want to miss the boat, consider other more usable commodities like potash.  (As the world adds nearly 75 million people a year, there’s a growing demand for cultivating food for them and potash is a staple needed for fertilizers).  After seeing a huge multi-national like BP get hammered for its lackadaisical approach to employee and environmental safety, it may be time to add more small companies to the mix which have less bureaucracy and may be faster to respond to opportunities and troubles.

The risky stuff may actually be more safe than the traditional stuff.

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“Sometimes all it takes to change your life massively for the better is a small action and a small success, “ says David Bach, a noted author on money matters. 

  1. Consolidate Your Accounts:  Don’t wait for spring cleaning to roll around.  Make it easier on yourself by combining old 401(k) or IRA balances from your various old jobs.  This can help cut down on the amount of paper you receive and improve the chances you’ll have a coordinated investment plan. And it’s just one more way to have a more ‘green’ holiday.
  2. Pay Yourself First: While there always seems like there’s more month at the end of your paycheck, you can only get ahead by making a point of putting aside money in savings.  It doesn’t matter if it’s just $5 or 5% of each paycheck as long as it’s consistent.  Start somewhere and try to build up to your target of at least 5% of your net cash flow. Direct the money into a separate money market account that you can’t access easily from an ATM or debit card.
  3. Get to Know Where Your Money Goes:  For most people cash flow is not the problem. It’s cash retention that is a challenge. There always seems to be too much flow away from you.  Set up a system to keep track of where your money is spent.  Whether you decide to use a notebook or financial accounting software like Quicken or an online service like Mint.com, this is a first step to getting the information you need to decide what your spending priorities should be. 
  4. Cut Expenses:  Armed with the information from your tracking, now consider ways to lower expenses.  Do you really need a daily Mucho Grande from your favorite coffee place?  At $5 a day, your habit could help pay for your annual vacation or pay down your credit card or mortgage debt. Do you really use all those movie channels?  Can you wear a sweater and lower the thermostat?  Do you really need to be in the mall? Cut down on impulse shopping by creating and sticking to a master list of groceries and household goods.
  5. Reduce Temptation: Consider saving the bulk of any bonus checks or raises.  By automatically diverting this money, you’ll be able to add to your emergency stash, have cash to pay down debt or even invest. See #2 above.
  6. Reevaluate Your Risk Tolerance:  One of the most useful services that financial planners can offer is helping you really articulate your goals and establish your tolerance for investing risk.  After the bumpy ride of the past 18 months, most folks realize that they may not have had a handle on this.
  7. Avoid the Casino Mentality: It is an understatement that investing in the market can be risky but now is not the time to try to play catch up by “doubling down” or chasing the hottest investments ideas.  Remember the story of the tortoise and hare.  Sometimes the race doesn’t go to the swiftest but the most consistent.  So diversify your eggs into different baskets and watch those baskets.  For help in choosing the right mix of investments and a style that will help you sleep better at night, consider meeting with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ professional.
  8. Rebalance Your Investments:  Over time, accounts that have been consistently rebalanced tend to have higher balances.  So plan to rebalance at least annually or even quarterly.  But first you need to have targets in mind so that you can unemotionally prune back your winners while adding to the laggards.
  9. Add to Your Retirement:  If you haven’t taken advantage of your employer’s sponsored retirement plan, start now.  If your employer doesn’t offer a plan or you’re self-employed, start your own.  Resolve to set aside at least the amount that will get you the maximum company match.   Ideally, you should know your “NUMBER” for living in retirement the way you want.  Consulting with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ professional can help you here.
  10. Get Planning Advice to Map Your Route to Your Goals:  Maybe you’ve winged it and thought your home and 401(k) were your tickets to a secure retirement.  Odds are that your planning is not filling the bill.  Sit down with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™ professional to discuss your whole picture and map out the action steps that will help keep you on track for financial success.

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On Wednesday, March 11, I launched the inaugural event of my Financial Road Map Series teleconferences.

I want to thank each of you who stopped by to listen in to my brief discussion on taking control of your financial future by controlling what you can.

To recap the important points we discussed:

1.) Control What You Can:  No sense in worrying about things that are beyond our individual control.  There’s plenty enough for us to handle and impact directly.  Things that you can control can include:  Your saving and spending habits, your health and exercise programs, your asset allocation, your investing costs, and most importantly, YOUR ATTITUDE.

2.) Have SMART Goals:  Begin with the end in mind.  Be Specific with Measurable goals that are Attainable and Realistic and tied to a specific Timeframe.  It’s one thing to say “someday I want to be rich” or “someday I want to own a boat.”  But if you can put a number to that vision, your mind’s eye can picture it as reality and it becomes a real target to shoot for.

3.) Understand Your Risk:  These past seventeen months have tested what it means to be an investor.  It has highlighted the reality that most individuals do not have a handle on their own risk appetite.  Understanding risk is more than simply answering a few questions on a form.  It involves an open and honest conversation with yourself, your spouse (significant other) and your advisor. Go beyond the standard form and consider what does money mean to you, how your family treated money, what has been your best and worst financial decision and how you came to those decisions.  Ask yourself (or your advisor should ask) how you feel about these risk attitudes.  You may even want to consider using an impartial tool located at www.riskprofiling.com to provide additional insight into your risk tolerance.

  • NOTE: In my practice I utilize multiple risk profile formats to get a handle on how a client thinks and what motivates a decision.  This is helpful to be able to better communicate with a client. 

But having an honest conversation is also integral to proper investment planning.  For instance, I can use the standard risk profile tools, my questions and the website tool listed above and determine a Risk Capacity Measure for a client.

A person who has verifiable emergency reserves (3 to 12 months depending on their particular circumstances), has a positive cash flow and net worth, low debt ratio and adequate life insurance in place has a capacity for higher risk than someone not demonstrating these attributes.  For someone lacking these attributes, the financial plan will likely focus on improving these measures before investing in something risky.

4.) Have an Investment Road Map: Most people would not go on a trip without a map or GPS.  The same should be true about investing.  Having a road map (called an Investment Policy Statement) is something that professional investors like pension funds, insurance companies and endowments use all the time.  It outlines the end result desired (for instance, growth of capital with the investment generating $X in income per year), the types of investments that will be considered (i.e. no investment in nuclear power or tobacco), and the criteria for determining when to buy, when to sell and what to replace it with.  This helps take the emotion out of investing and avoids having a long-term plan sabotaged by the chatter of “talking heads” either in the media or at the office water cooler.

5.) Risk Allocation:  You don’t need a graduate degree in finance to understand that some things just make sense.  More than ever the old adage makes sense: Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket.  While it is true that all asset classes have lost value from their peak nearly 18-months ago, that is no reason to give up on the wisdom of diversification. Just because someone doesn’t win a race the first time doesn’t mean you give up running ever again, does it?

But let’s be sensible about this.  Having a target risk allocation (based on investor age, timeframe until goal, risk capacity and risk tolerance) does not mean simply that you “buy and hold” or “set and forget.”  While academic literatute indicates that a buy and hold strategy will win out over time, in reality most investors do not have the stomach for the occasional and frightening roller coaster rides that happen like they have recently.  In which case in makes sense to buy, regularly and tactically rebalance while exploiting short-term trends and hold cash.  (Most investors do a poor job at following trends, implementing a disciplined trading strategy without emotion and sometimes having to go against the grain and do what seems uncomfortable like buying when everyone else is selling).

6.) Control Your Costs and Your Investment Vehicle: Invesment costs can weigh you down like an anchor.  And choosing the right investment vehicle helps you ride in comfort to your destination. 

Consider this:  Not all mutual funds are created equal.  Actively managed mutual funds have costs that detract from performance.  And typically more than 50% of active mutual funds do not match much less beat their benchmark index.  Does this mean that you give up on investing?  Heck, no. It just means you find another ride.  When a star football player gets hurt, does the team forfeit the remaining games?  No, they have a back up ready for replacement.  With a solid investment policy and using ETFs, you can make a quick switch, too.

This is why you should consider a strong core of index mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as part of your investment stratetgy (see “Top 8 Reasons to Use ETFs in Your Portfolio,” March 10 blog post).

7.) Estate Planning is for Everyone: Be prepared.  That’s the motto that every Boy Scout knows.  It’s good advice here as well.  Having the best investment strategy and record-breaking performance on investments will mean absolutely nothing if you’re not on a strong foundation.  This is what an estate plan will help do by laying the groundwork on how you want to control disposition of your assets and control your affairs.  Regardless of age or portfolio size, an estate plan is important throughout the various stages of life.  This goes for seniors and newly married couples.  If you have something or someone to protect, you need to talk with an attorney to draft a plan that includes at the very least: a Last Will, a durable Power of Attorney, a health care directive.  And if you have minor children it is imperative to have your guardianship issues addressed.

8.) Insurance: In uncertain times, it is even more important to make sure that you protect yourself from contingencies that can blow up your plans and get you off track.

Please review these items annually.  Consider putting it on your calendar to coincide with the seasonal change for clocks.

  • Make sure you have full replacement coverage on your property
  • Add an “umbrella liability” policy to your home and auto.  In a litigious world you don’t need to lose everything because of a lawsuit.
  • Make sure you have filed a “homestead declaration” recorded at the Registry of Deeds on your primary residence.  This will protect you from creditors placing a lien on your property that could force you to sell to settle a suit.
  • Review your employer-sponsored benefits and consider group Long-term Care Insurance, Short and Long-term Disability and Supplemental Accident coverages in addition to standard health/vision coverage.
  • You really need to consider coordinating these coverages with individually owned policies because when you leave your employer you will lose these coverages. 
  • Life Insurance:  Do speak with a financial planner who will do a detailed expense analysis to determine the appropriate level of insurance.  This approach is more likely to result in an appropriate level of insurance at a lower cost than rules of thumb based on income.  As with employer-benefits, consider having policies separate from your work.  A level-term policy is relatively inexpensive and offers cost-effective coverage during the peak years when you may have considerable debts and family responsibilities.

For specific advice on any of these matters, please consider speaking with an independent board-certified planner.

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